- SPECIAL TEAMS
Often in any series the difference between winning and losing is who performs better on special teams. In this series, the importance of the power play has been significantly magnified. In the three games that the Rangers have won, they have scored at least one power play goal in each. It is clear that their top players derive confidence and energy from power play success.
“They thrive off their power play. I think its pretty obvious to everybody, it’s their thing, it gets their top guys going,” Erik Haula commented after the optional skate between games six and seven.
In the three games the Devils have won in the series, they have not allowed a power play goal. Over the last 48 hours, all of the players and coaches stressed staying out of the penalty box. Similarly, the Devils have to generate opportunities on their own power play. The Devils have scored four power play goals, one penalty shot goal and one short handed goal.
In a series where they have been dominant 5v5 but have been unable to beat Igor Shesterkin for many even strength goals, power play chances cannot be wasted.
- PUCK MANAGEMENT
Throughout the season and the playoffs, coach Lindy Ruff has stressed puck management. One of the starkest differences in the games they have won has been the Devils' ability to possess the puck and put it in areas where they can be successful. Dawson Mercer’s failure to properly manage the puck at the end of the first period in Game Six began a chain of events that allowed the Rangers to tie the game and restore their confidence.
Prior to that moment, the Devils had been almost flawless in how they managed the period. Getting pucks deep, taking advantage of skating on to pucks and rush opportunities will force the Rangers to defend for long periods of time and put the Devils in better positions to score.
When asked what his keys to the game were, other than not taking penalties, Ruff focused on puck management, “Manage the puck late in periods, two plays late in periods cost us…that would be the key for me, we managed the puck a lot better, we played almost a perfect first period but for the last minute.”
- FINISHING
For a team that boasted seven players who scored at least 20 goals on the season, the goals have not been easy to come by in the playoffs. The Devils finished fifth in the regular season in goals scored and currently sit dead last amongst playoff teams. Thus far, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier and Tomas Tatar who combined for 123 goals on the year have zero combined in the six games so far in the postseason.
With all of them shooting well over 12% for the season, it is reasonable to expect that with the quality looks each has gotten that the shots will begin going in soon. The question for the Devils is will it be soon enough.
- STATS
By every advanced metric the Devils have dominated the series at 5v5, which explains why it is so important for them to limit penalties. In the regular season the Devils found ways to solve Shesterkin, and to win the series they must do that again one more time. In six games, the Devils have the advantage in every stat and at all strengths except for goals scored, which is a pretty important stats.
The Devils lead in high danger chances (96-64), Corsi for (53-47), Shots (182-164), and expected goals (21-17), They trail in three categories, goals scored (17-13), shooting percentage (10-7), and save percentage (92-89). As discussed above, the Devils are shooting almost three percent lower in the series than they did in the regular season while the Rangers are at their regular season pace.
- HOME ICE ADVANTAGE?
Each team is exactly 1-2 on home ice in the series, each having won their most recent home game. While it does not appear that playing at home offers some structural advantage (See Colorado and Boston,) there is certainly a key tactical advantage. The ability for Ruff to match lines and have last change is a huge advantage in a Game Seven especially if the game is close.
In Game Six, the Rangers were able to keep Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider away from Hischier’s line that had stymied them for the better part of the last three games. In Game Six, at 5v5 Zibanejad faced Hischier less than two minutes. In their time on ice together at 5v5, Hischier has almost 69% of the expected goals and has a high danger chance advantage over Zibanejad of 7-2.
- LINEUP CHANGES
Don’t expect the lineups to change. The Rangers have been incredibly fortunate to not have had their depth tested. They do not have a player they could use as an injury replacement or could even arguably replace any of their top 20 without a drop off. The Devils depth has shone through in other ways as Ruff has juggled his lineup after the 0-2 start. The insertion of Siegenthaler, Schmid and Lazar are key reasons why the Devils have won three of four and made it to a Game Seven.
The only potential question left for Ruff is whether to go back to Vitek Vanecek, who carried the team all season. Schmid has played well in his four playoff games and, despite allowing five goals on Saturday night, appears to be in line to lead the team on the ice Monday night.
- KEY MATCHUPS
The Devils will win if they win the special teams battle and get contributions from their top six at even strength. Getting the Hughes line matched up against Trouba or Mikkola would pay dividends. Defensively, the top matchup will be stopping Zibanejad and Kreider with Hischier and the Graves/Marino pair. Before the series began, defenseman Brendan Smith said that the most telling matchup, other than special teams, would be the battle of the third lines.
He believed often the top sixes cancel each other out and the third lines are left to make the impactful plays. This should play into the Devils' advantage if it comes to fruition as Mercer has scored in back-to-back games and Meier has been a one man wrecking ball and is way overdue for a goal
Puck drop is at 8 p.m. from the Prudential Center
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- Devils Speed and Schmid Too Much For Rangers in Game Seven - May 2, 2023
