McLeod, Devils
Photo Credit: Mark Fischgrund

Devils Playoff Preview

SEASON SERIES

The Devils enter the playoffs having won three of four against their Hudson River Rivals, the Rangers. The Devils won twice in regulation, once in each rink, and the teams split overtime victories, one by Filip Chytil at MSG and one by Damon Severson at The Rock

 

  • The Devils outscored the Rangers 14-11 in the four games head-to-head
  • In each of the first three games, the team that won overcame an early two-goal deficit. In the fourth contest, the Devils took the dreaded two goal lead but never relinquished a tying goal.
  • The Devils finished five points ahead of the Rangers in the standings and had a goal differential of +65 to the Rangers +58
  • The Devils enter the series 7-3 in their last 10, the Rangers are 5-2-3
  •  The Devils have either tied or outshot the Rangers in every game this season.
  • The Devils won every statistical battle against the Rangers, at all strengths, however at 5v5 the Devils were dominant, almost doubling the Rangers in high danger chances (54 to 28), had an expected goal percentage of 58 and a Corsi For percentage of 56.6, meaning the Devils out possessed and out chanced the Rangers over the course of the four matchups

 

FORWARDS

Each team boasts a formidable forward group.  Each top six can score in multiple ways and with multiple scorers. The Rangers boast two 90 point players, (Panarin & Zibanejad,) while the Devils have the overall points leader in Jack Hughes (99). Both teams' top six like to play off the rush. The Devils tied for fourth in the league in goals scored, the Rangers were 12th, 16 goals off the pace. There should be some open ice for both teams and success will come down to being able to take advantage of the mistakes by the other team. 

 

It is most likely that this series will be won in the “dirty” areas by which team can get goal front position and cash in rebound and tip opportunities.  While the top sixes may cancel each other out, the series will be won and lost in the clash of the bottom sixes. 

 

The Devils enter with likely lines of Timo Meier, Erik Haula and Jesper Boqvist as well as Miles Wood, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian.  The “BMW” line as the 4th line is affectionately called has played more minutes together than any line  for the Devils all season and despite often defending against the opponent’s top lines, has outchanced their opponents  and boast a high danger chances for percentage of 58.

The Meier, Haula and Boqvist line is a relatively new construction only having played nine games together. Since the addition of Meier into the lineup on March 5, Haula and Meier have tied for the most goals scored on the team (nine each) during that period.  The worm appears to be turning for Haula who had almost comical puck luck earlier in the season and ending up shooting almost 30 percent lower than his average shooting percentage. As the season came to a close, he was certainly getting closer to his career average, which should bode well for the Devils in the playoffs. 

 

The third and fourth lines for the Rangers are the “kid” line of Alexis Lafreienere, Filip Chytl and Kaapo Kakko, who broke out collectively in the Rangers run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, and the veteran line of Tyler Motte, Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey. The kid line thrives on the forecheck and high level skill. Controlling  Chytl on the rush has proven difficult for the Devils and will be an area they need to contain to be successful.

The fourth line brings an edge not found in the rest of the team. Vesey is a strong two-way player, while Goodrow is a veteran of the playoff wars having won the Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Motte is a player the Rangers sought to reacquire at the deadline and he has provided them with toughness and timely scoring. 

 

The Devils seem to have an advantage with depth, as they will likely have Curtis Lazar and Yegor Sharangovich as healthy scratches ready to draw into the lineup while the Rangers do not have a bench player with the skill of Sharangovich. 

 

Players to watch: Devils - Timo Meier, Erik Haula & Tomas Tatar

Rangers - Filip Chytl, Vincent Trochek, Mika Zibanejad

 

DEFENSEMAN

 

The Devils boast the best right side defensive corps in the NHL with Dougie Hamilton, John Marino and Damon Severson. The Rangers have the best defenseman in the series, and maybe the Eastern Conference in Adam Fox.  Hamilton set club records for goals by a defenseman and has had a knack all season long to score important goals especially on the power play. Where the series will be won and lost though will be the ability of the blue liners of each team to join the attack smartly without giving up odd man rushes, as both teams are too good in transition to recover. 

 

Ryan Graves and Marino have been one of the statistically best pairs in the NHL all season, and Severson and Kevin Bahl are not far behind. Severson and Bahl currently boast the third highest expected goals percentage of any defensive pair in the NHL.  The bottom four of K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba, Niko Mikkola and Braden Schneider, are solid but have not produced nearly as well as the Devils. Trouba can change games with his physicality and is always a threat to find the back of the net but he and Miller have given up 55 goals against in just over 1100 minutes together.

By comparison, Graves and Marino have allowed 27 goals in a little more than 800 minutes together.  Even more stark is that Severson and Bahl, in 300 minutes together, have surrendered eight goals while the Rangers third pair of Mikkola and Schneider have allowed seven goals in just over half the minutes.

 

The Devils also boast a considerable depth advantage in being able to draw Luke Hughes and Brendan Smith into the lineup to cover for an injury or a matchup issue, while the Rangers would rely on Ben Harpur to fill any holes. 

 

Players to Watch : Devils - Damon Severson

Rangers - Jacob Trouba

 

GOALTENDING

The biggest advantage the Rangers have over the Devils is between the pipes. Last season the Rangers were able to ride a MVP level performance from Igor Shesterkin all the way to taking a lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. Shesterkin had a down season this year but has picked it up as of late and is still considered one of the top goalies in the NHL.  He is a notorious game stealer and has saved 28 goals above expected. 

 

Last season, the Devils set a franchise record for most goalies used in a season (7.) Most cited the lack of even league average goaltending as the reason that they were 30 points out of a playoff appearance.  The arrival of Vitek Vanecek and his solid play in net has solidified the position for the Devils and put them in the playoffs. 

Vanecek only saved five goals above expected, but notably his team gives up significantly less expected goals. Vanecek isn’t flashy, when he is at his best he  is positionally sound and has made key saves in crucial times. His ability to shut down a team after giving up early goals has allowed the Devils to lead the NHL in comeback wins. 

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

 

“Special teams, for sure, most of the time that is the difference in the playoffs,” was how John Marino described the most important matchup of the series. Both teams enter the series with superstars galore on the power play. The Rangers PP1 boasts Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox, Kane and Chris Kreider, while the Devils counter with Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt and Meier. Neither team will want to end up short handed, but the team that more effectively kills penalties will likely come away with a series win.

 

The Rangers rank 7th in Power Play % while the Devils are 13th. The bigger gap is on the penalty kill where the Devils rank 4th in the league but the Rangers are 13th. Each team is not simply looking to clear the zone and dump it down the ice for a change, both have significant offensive threats on the kill.

The Devils are led by Hischier, Haula, and Sharangovich who have combined for seven goals while shorthanded.  Chris Kreider has made a career out of using his speed on the penalty kill to rack up shorthanded goals and has four to his credit this season. It is entirely possible that a shorthanded goal could change a game or the series. 

 

Players to Watch: Devils - Erik Haula, Nico Hischier

Rangers - Chris Kreider, Jimmy Vesey

 

THE DEVILS WILL WIN THE SERIES IF THEY:

  • Use their depth to continue to dominate 5v5 play
  • Do not allow the Rangers to change the series on Special Teams
  • Get traffic to the net and take away Shesterkin’s line of vision
  • Are defensively responsible in transition and limit odd man rushes

 

THE RANGERS WILL WIN THE SERIES IF THEY:

  • Get Vezina level goaltending from Shesterkin to cover up their defensive lapses
  • Can get Kane or Tarasenko to be legitimate threats at even strength
  • Dominate on their power play\
  • Shut down the middle of the ice and force the Devils to play more East to West

 

CANDIDATES FOR THE NEXT MATTEAU/HENRIQUE

  • Ondrej Palat
  • Timo Meier
  • Dawson Mercer
  • Miles Wood
  • Jimmy Vesey
  • Barclay Goodrow
  • Vincent Trochek
  • Tyler Motte

 

PREDICTION

Throughout the season, especially at 5v5, the Devils have been the better team and won three of four games, all with Shesterkin in the opposite crease. In the game they lost, the Devils held a two goal lead and were poised to expand their lead when Jack Hughes was awarded a penalty shot.  Shesterkin denied Hughes and the Rangers rode the emotion to a Filip Chytl, deflected and goalpost-aided overtime winner. All things being even and both teams being healthy, the Devils are younger, faster and more dynamic. 

The main knock against them appears to be the Rangers edge in experience which is belied by the inexperienced Rangers’ run last season to the Eastern Conference Finals.  All year the Devils have leaned on the experience of veterans Erik Haula, Brendan Smith, Tomas Tatar and Ondrej Palat. Throw in the emergence of Hughes, Hischier, and Hamilton, and possibly the best, and deepest defensive corps in the league, the Devils are formidable. 

 

Both teams were active at the trade deadline. The Rangers acquired two veteran All-Stars who have won Cups in Tarasenko and Kane but the most important addition may have been getting Tyler Motte to solidify their bottom six.  The Devils acquired the best available player in the trade market in Timo Meier, who unlike Kane and Tarasenko has been a revelation. Meier leads the team in goals since he has arrived and has set a physical tone that his teammates have followed. GM Tom Fitzgerald added the missing piece to his team that checked all the open boxes.

 

The Devils have been resilient all season, leading the NHL in comebacks and multi-goal comebacks.  There has only been one game all season that they were truly non-competitive.  Despite the lack of collective experience of Bratt, Hischier, and Hughes, they have all proven to be fearless in the face of adversity and the team has thrived in late game situations. There is no reason to believe that should the Devils go down in the series that they could not come back.  

 

This series will be a war of attrition. The Rangers will win their share of battles, largely on the back of Shesterkin but in the end the Devils will win the war in six games, fittingly on the road.